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Alert: Gold Has Broken Out

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Monday, 30 July 2012
* Last week European Central Bank President Mario Draghi assured the global financial markets that he would do 'whatever it takes' to save the Euro. We have been used to this kind of assuring rhetoric that has produced little enduring results and Mario Draghi has yet to prove that he can save the Euro. However, this news was a catalyst for Gold

* Last week Gold climbed more than 4% from $1563.51 low on 23 July per ounce to $1629.44 on 27 July. Gold is now up 3.7% for the year and down 15.6% from its 2011 high of $1921.17

* Since 4 July we have been advising to buy Gold as we warned that a 'bullish' signal had been generated

* Last week Gold climbed above the 100 Day Moving Average of for the first time since 25 Jan

* The 200 Day Moving Average target is at 1655.45

* Since 16 May, Gold has been in a triangle formation between 1528 and 1624 but last week Gold has broken out of this range and traded at 1629.44 on Friday, 27 June

* The key level now for Gold is the $1640 region and IF gold breaks above this region, it could advance towards the 1,700-1,800 level

* We reiterate that fundamentally Central Banks have been the biggest buyers of Gold since 2010 (please click on link at bottom of page for that article)

* We do not expect a major stimulative move from the Fed this week at its Aug meeting. However, looking at the weak US GDP data, market is now expecting QE3 as early as September and IF that happens, it will be an excellent capatalyst to propel Gold closer towards its 2011 high

* Last Monday, Deutsche Bank reiterated its call for buying Gold and published a note that it was looking at a target price of $2,000 an ounce in the 1Q of 2013. Deutsche also said that the Gold price could be range bound over the next month or so but cited the 'fiscal cliff' and further Fed stimulus as catalysts for a higher gold price

* We have been advising to buy Gold on dips since it fell to a low of 1522.75 on 20 Dec 2011. We have been stressing for Investors to buy Gold below the 1600 and 1550 levels only if they could afford to wait patiently

* Last week there was plenty of call option buying activity for the SPDR Gold Shares Trust ETF (GLD) which is the world largest Gold ETF. Investors were buying October 162 call options for GLD at $3.31. More than 26,000 contracts traded against open interest of 609 contracts. This call activity pushed total option volume for GLD past 260,000 contracts on 26 July. Calls outnumbered puts by 3 to 1

* On 1 July 2012, we advised to buy GLD between 155 and 160. Target: 185. On 12 July, amidst the Euro crisis, GLD dropped to 150.85, below our 155-160 buy range. On 27 July, GLD traded at a high of 157.96.

* Ways to Buy Gold: Physical Gold Bullion, Gold Mining Stocks, Gold Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), Gold Futures

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http://bluephoenixfinancial.com/investment-management/blog/4380-central-banks-still-buying-gold

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